Media Trend Watching: Radio Right Now
Labels: cellphone, FMQB, Google, HD Radio, Internet, John Parikhal, Joint Communications, Jointblog, Karmazin, Media, Media Trend Watching, MySpace, PPM, Radio, Sirius, XM
Joint Communications marks 30 years this month advising the radio industry through format programming, consulting, market research, marketing development and media strategy services.
The month of April also means it's time for John Parikhal's annual spring check-up as this week's featured FMQB cover story to discuss radio and the evolving mediaspace challenges radio faces in the immediate future.
Among the discussed topics:
> The proposed XM/Sirius merger -- including the financial and competitive implications as well as Mel Karmazin's catalyst role (puzzling; Stern probably helped save Sirius; Mel sees opportunities)
> The trend led by Clear Channel and other big groups toward privatization (more squeeze and bleed? And Clear Channel gets rewarded?)
> HD Radio (just another local spectrum)
> PPM ratings measurements (consistency of measurement will help)
> The cellphone (risky for electronic ratings measurement)
> Blink spots and other "Less is More" initiatives (applaud the experimentation; spare listener energy; don't invade the consumer)
> Radio's needed presence on the Internet and its mishandling of opportunities that went to MySpace instead (getting better...but still behind due to insufficient support staffing and streaming fee penalties)
> Google's new deal selling radio ads ("It's nonsense")
> The lucrative potential of selling and targeting the 30-59 year old demographic (so much money radio could grab)
> An updated look at radio's emerging trends (demographics!)
FMQB's chief editor Fred Deane gets it all started by saying:As the radio industry evolves at a rapid pace, critical decisions about the medium’s future become increasingly more urgent. Technology issues have enveloped the industry to such a challenging extent, that the call for radio leaders to be actionable has never resonated so loudly. John Parikhal has never met a challenge he didn’t like, he relishes the very concept. While Parikhal’s client list continues to remain firmly entrenched in radio, the macro version finds him involved with a variety of media and marketing companies. His latest foray with strategic Internet initiatives with some large clients has him thinking about the future 24/7. It’s spring and time for our annual check-up with one of our industry’s deep thinkers.
Thanks, Fred. All that and more...just click here for some great reading. Then come back and add your thoughts here on the Jointblog.
Additional reading: Thinking Through The Decision Making Process
posted by Unknown @ Friday, April 27, 2007,
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XM/Sirius Merger: WWHT? (What would Howard think?)
Labels: CBS Radio, competition, FCC, Jointblog, Karmazin, merger, NYPost, rumours, Satellite, Sirius, Stern, XM
"Wha-wha-WHAT?" (if you've been a Stern fan over the years, you know the SFX)...
This gave me a laugh reading Jossip's Media Blitz this morning. Too bad I was drinking my coffee at the time (thank god for Bounty):Sirius and XM merger described as imminent possibility; Howard Stern described as "too rich to care."
Of course, whether this announcement happens or not, the next 15 months of FCC regulatory hell would serve as either a sideshow or a distraction...and Stern will still be "too rich to care".
(canned applause in response)
Obviously, it is a BIG deal, if it can get through. A predicted operating savings of $7 Billion (if an accurate estimate) means satellite radio has a much better chance of thriving and surviving. But at what cost will come those savings? There's always a cost...
Update at 1:30PM EST: ABC NEWS has "confirmed" through their sources the merger deal is happening today, although it has not been announced or commented directly by either XM or Sirius officials...yet.
So...if the story is accurate and eventually approved, how would the merger play out? Here's one way to see it...(click through)
Here's another point of view from Wall Street. And more. And yet more comments on the possible end of XM's and Sirius' head-to-head competition.
Winners and losers? Your thoughts?
Another update (3:45pm EST): It's now official.
For a MoneyCentral financial analysis of Sirius share/investor history and its future prospects, click here.
So what does Howard Stern and Mel Karmazin think about the merger? Click here and here.
posted by Unknown @ Monday, February 19, 2007,
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Police Reunite While Motley Fool Chooses: Sirius, Apple and XM...Which would you "Date, Marry or Kill"?
Labels: '80s, AOL, CBS Radio, Ethel, Jointblog, Motley Fool, Police, reunion, Satellite, Sirius, traditional, XM
Yesterday, I heard the type of event I thought radio had long forgotten: The Police's Whisky A Go Go press conference and live rehersal preview of their reunion tour this summer the morning after their opening performance on Sunday night's Grammys.
Where did I hear this live, commercial-free broadcast?
Sadly, not on traditional radio. I heard it on XM's Ethel. On my computer. Through XM's AOL service. Using an intentional (and accurate) "I Love the '80s" term, it was awesome.
Was this event broadcast over the airwaves in America's biggest metropolitan area? I don't know (it was also broadcast on VH1 Classic and VH1's Radio Network, which includes internet streaming)...I sure didn't hear anything about over the air, not with all the babble about Anna Nicole Smith's death.
Speaking of death, Motley Fool did an old radio bit, wondering: If you have the options of Sirius, Apple and XM, which would you "Date, Marry or Kill"?
As Orbitcast reports, The Fool:"...would "date" Sirius because they're at their 52 week low right now, even though Sirius has fewer subscribers, a heavier market cap, and posted steeper losses than XM. Still, Sirius has a lot of momentum behind it and the Fool seems to like the prospect of Sirius Backseat TV should it take off.
And yet...it was XM I heard broadcasting The Police...it wasn't through iTunes and it wasn't on Sirius (that I know of).
Apple was the one to marry because, well, because they're profitable. And they've got the iPod, of which they've sold 90 million units (compared to "only" 13.6 million satellite radio subscribers). It doesn't hurt that Apple has topped Wall Street's estimates for 16 straight quarters. Oh right, and then there's the iPhone.
XM on the otherhand got killed. Why? Because of the fading merger speculation, the RIAA lawsuit and losing massive retail marketshare to Sirius. The Fool isn't necessarily convinced over the whole "OEM is the future" thing either (because of iPod jacks)."
And it wasn't traditional radio (was radio DUI and cuffed by The Police?)...
Hmmm, which new media would you date, marry or kill?
posted by Unknown @ Tuesday, February 13, 2007,
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John Parikhal on What if XM and Sirius do merge?
Labels: gadgets, Joint Communications, Jointblog, Karmazin, merger, New Media, Pinero, Radio, Satellite, Sirius, XMThe merger speculative talk about a possible XM and Sirius merger continues to stay red-hot.
There are many pros (reduced operating and competitive costs, larger OEM relationship network, etc.) and cons (FCC opposition, less competition no longer contraining subscriber fees, incompatible technologies, etc.). The Street.com's Jim Cramer loves the idea -- while Wall Street continues to speculate.
If it happens, the deal will have to happen soon (within the next 6-8 weeks, and approved by company stakeholders by this summer) if it is to pass through all the regulatory hurdles before the 2008 elections.
Bridge Ratings just released their updated subscriber projections (assuming the two companies don't merge), anticipating a total of 35 million subscribers by 2020. Here's their provided chart:
Both XM Radio's CEO Hugh Pinero and Sirius Radio's CEO Mel Karmazin publically say they are not exploring combining the satellite radio into one company. Of course, that doesn't cover any possible private conversations.
If the merge did happen, who would win?
Joint Communications' CEO John Parikhal shares his thoughts on a possible XM and Sirius merger:
XM and Sirius have different programming philosophies. Sirius has more technical problems than XM. In a perfect world, XM would win.
But ... Mel Karmazin is a smart cookie. He's pushing for a merger to deflect the fact that Sirius is far behind XM. My bet is (I could be wrong) that he figures Wall Street will crown him to run any merged entity ... so he beats the merger drum.
Because ... XM has fumbled the marketing ball more than once. They have not created enough need. Which is what gives Mel his bully pulpit.
XM had a huge opportunity to grow during the early years of consolidation when the arrogant roll-up artists were bragging about how they could run 16 minutes of spots an hour on music radio. Where was XM with a "commercial free" ad campaign? Instead we got stupid TV ads with David Bowie crashing through the roof.
XM still shies away from "commercial free" music with lots of choice, choosing to promote second tier programming that has big names but little that is fresh or new. And ... much of the "talk" and news programming has commercials!! How many people are going to pony up $14 a month for Oprah's sidekick (Oprah is not really Oprah) or to listen to a golf match.
XM lost the chance to cripple if not kill Sirius when it raised its price to $14 a month from $10. They could have clobbered Sirius (before they hired Stern) by focusing on what a deal $10 a month was compared to Sirius $14.
Having said all this ... there's still a good business in satellite radio. There is a real market of between 20 and 25 million people for the product. It will coexist with terrestrial radio just as cable coexists with network.
Both companies need to focus on marketing, not personality stunting, if they are going to get the respect they deserve. They might take a page from the old Rolls Royce advertising strategy - who focused on those who already bought a Rolls - "reminded" them of how great their car was - tried to make others envious - used "emotion" to create the need.
posted by Unknown @ Saturday, January 27, 2007,
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Car Wars: HD Radio vs. Satellite Radio
Labels: Analytics, iBiquity, OEM, satellite radio, Sirius, XM
A study by Strategy Analytics, In-vehicle Entertainment Systems Market 2004-2011, states that "automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) should be cautious about introducing satellite digital radio options, despite the increasing adoption of satellite radio among U.S. consumers." The reason? Terrestrial radio's dedication to the growth and implementation of HD Radio.
"XM and Sirius face competition from iBiquity's HD Radio. However, iBiquity now needs to shift focus from radio station upgrades to consumer system upgrades," said Strategy Analytics Automotive Multimedia & Communications Service analyst Clare Hughes. "There has been significant investment in terrestrial radio station upgrade by iBiquity; however this now needs to be translated into revenue."
Strategy Analytics does expect the market for in-vehicle satellite radio in North America to increase from 5.2 million units in 2004 to 12.8 million units by 2011, but that is in terms of shipments in the original equipment, which doesn't necessarily translate to subscriptions. XM recently reported during its second quarter conference call that six out of ten people that buy a car with a factory-installed satellite radio accept the service.
Strategy Analytics also reported that the "explosive satellite radio growth seen over the last three quarters will not translate automatically into the automotive market however, and growth in general will slow down toward the end of 2005. In-vehicle satellite radio growth will face competition from portable satellite radio devices and HD Radio/iBiquity systems."
BMW recently became the first car company to offer HD radio as a factory install, with the others expected to follow soon. And terrestrial radio companies are starting to launch HD side channels, with more announcements expected such as the one made by Greater Media Detroit. Until the BMW announcement was made, both satcasters have had free reign over in-vehicle digital radio, but as terrestrial radio steps up its campaign, the competition will heat up, giving consumers a choice beyond one of the satcasters.
posted by Unknown @ Friday, August 12, 2005,
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