XM/Sirius Merger: WWHT? (What would Howard think?)
Labels: CBS Radio, competition, FCC, Jointblog, Karmazin, merger, NYPost, rumours, Satellite, Sirius, Stern, XM
"Wha-wha-WHAT?" (if you've been a Stern fan over the years, you know the SFX)...
This gave me a laugh reading Jossip's Media Blitz this morning. Too bad I was drinking my coffee at the time (thank god for Bounty):Sirius and XM merger described as imminent possibility; Howard Stern described as "too rich to care."
Of course, whether this announcement happens or not, the next 15 months of FCC regulatory hell would serve as either a sideshow or a distraction...and Stern will still be "too rich to care".
(canned applause in response)
Obviously, it is a BIG deal, if it can get through. A predicted operating savings of $7 Billion (if an accurate estimate) means satellite radio has a much better chance of thriving and surviving. But at what cost will come those savings? There's always a cost...
Update at 1:30PM EST: ABC NEWS has "confirmed" through their sources the merger deal is happening today, although it has not been announced or commented directly by either XM or Sirius officials...yet.
So...if the story is accurate and eventually approved, how would the merger play out? Here's one way to see it...(click through)
Here's another point of view from Wall Street. And more. And yet more comments on the possible end of XM's and Sirius' head-to-head competition.
Winners and losers? Your thoughts?
Another update (3:45pm EST): It's now official.
For a MoneyCentral financial analysis of Sirius share/investor history and its future prospects, click here.
So what does Howard Stern and Mel Karmazin think about the merger? Click here and here.
posted by Unknown @ Monday, February 19, 2007,
,
Police Reunite While Motley Fool Chooses: Sirius, Apple and XM...Which would you "Date, Marry or Kill"?
Labels: '80s, AOL, CBS Radio, Ethel, Jointblog, Motley Fool, Police, reunion, Satellite, Sirius, traditional, XM
Yesterday, I heard the type of event I thought radio had long forgotten: The Police's Whisky A Go Go press conference and live rehersal preview of their reunion tour this summer the morning after their opening performance on Sunday night's Grammys.
Where did I hear this live, commercial-free broadcast?
Sadly, not on traditional radio. I heard it on XM's Ethel. On my computer. Through XM's AOL service. Using an intentional (and accurate) "I Love the '80s" term, it was awesome.
Was this event broadcast over the airwaves in America's biggest metropolitan area? I don't know (it was also broadcast on VH1 Classic and VH1's Radio Network, which includes internet streaming)...I sure didn't hear anything about over the air, not with all the babble about Anna Nicole Smith's death.
Speaking of death, Motley Fool did an old radio bit, wondering: If you have the options of Sirius, Apple and XM, which would you "Date, Marry or Kill"?
As Orbitcast reports, The Fool:"...would "date" Sirius because they're at their 52 week low right now, even though Sirius has fewer subscribers, a heavier market cap, and posted steeper losses than XM. Still, Sirius has a lot of momentum behind it and the Fool seems to like the prospect of Sirius Backseat TV should it take off.
And yet...it was XM I heard broadcasting The Police...it wasn't through iTunes and it wasn't on Sirius (that I know of).
Apple was the one to marry because, well, because they're profitable. And they've got the iPod, of which they've sold 90 million units (compared to "only" 13.6 million satellite radio subscribers). It doesn't hurt that Apple has topped Wall Street's estimates for 16 straight quarters. Oh right, and then there's the iPhone.
XM on the otherhand got killed. Why? Because of the fading merger speculation, the RIAA lawsuit and losing massive retail marketshare to Sirius. The Fool isn't necessarily convinced over the whole "OEM is the future" thing either (because of iPod jacks)."
And it wasn't traditional radio (was radio DUI and cuffed by The Police?)...
Hmmm, which new media would you date, marry or kill?
posted by Unknown @ Tuesday, February 13, 2007,
,
John Parikhal on What if XM and Sirius do merge?
Labels: gadgets, Joint Communications, Jointblog, Karmazin, merger, New Media, Pinero, Radio, Satellite, Sirius, XMThe merger speculative talk about a possible XM and Sirius merger continues to stay red-hot.
There are many pros (reduced operating and competitive costs, larger OEM relationship network, etc.) and cons (FCC opposition, less competition no longer contraining subscriber fees, incompatible technologies, etc.). The Street.com's Jim Cramer loves the idea -- while Wall Street continues to speculate.
If it happens, the deal will have to happen soon (within the next 6-8 weeks, and approved by company stakeholders by this summer) if it is to pass through all the regulatory hurdles before the 2008 elections.
Bridge Ratings just released their updated subscriber projections (assuming the two companies don't merge), anticipating a total of 35 million subscribers by 2020. Here's their provided chart:
Both XM Radio's CEO Hugh Pinero and Sirius Radio's CEO Mel Karmazin publically say they are not exploring combining the satellite radio into one company. Of course, that doesn't cover any possible private conversations.
If the merge did happen, who would win?
Joint Communications' CEO John Parikhal shares his thoughts on a possible XM and Sirius merger:
XM and Sirius have different programming philosophies. Sirius has more technical problems than XM. In a perfect world, XM would win.
But ... Mel Karmazin is a smart cookie. He's pushing for a merger to deflect the fact that Sirius is far behind XM. My bet is (I could be wrong) that he figures Wall Street will crown him to run any merged entity ... so he beats the merger drum.
Because ... XM has fumbled the marketing ball more than once. They have not created enough need. Which is what gives Mel his bully pulpit.
XM had a huge opportunity to grow during the early years of consolidation when the arrogant roll-up artists were bragging about how they could run 16 minutes of spots an hour on music radio. Where was XM with a "commercial free" ad campaign? Instead we got stupid TV ads with David Bowie crashing through the roof.
XM still shies away from "commercial free" music with lots of choice, choosing to promote second tier programming that has big names but little that is fresh or new. And ... much of the "talk" and news programming has commercials!! How many people are going to pony up $14 a month for Oprah's sidekick (Oprah is not really Oprah) or to listen to a golf match.
XM lost the chance to cripple if not kill Sirius when it raised its price to $14 a month from $10. They could have clobbered Sirius (before they hired Stern) by focusing on what a deal $10 a month was compared to Sirius $14.
Having said all this ... there's still a good business in satellite radio. There is a real market of between 20 and 25 million people for the product. It will coexist with terrestrial radio just as cable coexists with network.
Both companies need to focus on marketing, not personality stunting, if they are going to get the respect they deserve. They might take a page from the old Rolls Royce advertising strategy - who focused on those who already bought a Rolls - "reminded" them of how great their car was - tried to make others envious - used "emotion" to create the need.
posted by Unknown @ Saturday, January 27, 2007,
,
Stern, Ratings, CES, MacWorld Expo: Not Just Another Day in Mediaville
Labels: Apple, CBS Radio, CES, HD Radio, innovation, Jointblog, MacWorld, Media, Media Trend Watching, Net Neutrality, Radio, Ratings, Satellite, Sirius, Stern, Steve Jobs
January 9th turned out to be quite the media day.
Howard Stern started off the day celebrating one year satcasting his radio show on Sirius radio, complete with omelet bar and plenty of bagels for Artie Lange.
Stern's one-year impact? Certainly a major contributer to Sirius subscriber gains of more than 2.8 million new listeners. Which explains Stern's huge stock reward announced today worth an estimated $83 million.
Stern's also much happier censoring himself instead of being verbally shackled by the FCC, allowing him to deliver radio that is "free-form, free-flowing, one big party." Stern's satellite success has brought Sirius plenty of new sat radio listeners and, according to Mel Karmazin, $300 million more than Wall Street originally forecast for Stern's first year. But, Newsday asks, at what cost?
Whatever. The King of All Media is better than ever.
And CBS Radio was left reeling, as explained by the NY Daily News. Today's Fall ratings book results began rolling out today; the Stern-escape effect still shows.
Meanwhile, looks like HD Radio may be benefiting due to Stern's move to satellite radio. According to Forbes.com, the major disruption in morning radio habits once Stern left forced listeners to consider new options. Some went to Sirius or XM or just another terrestrial radio station. But, now that prices have dropped and more formats have been made available, some radio listeners are beginning to check out HD Radio, including at this week's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Will HD Radio (now with 1,200 stations available and increasing) eventually challenge satellite radio's position?
Speaking of new electronics...
The annual MacWorld Expo trumped the CES getting all news outlets talking while also giving Steven Jobs some TV time on ABC's World News with Charlie Gibson. ABC News got two-minutes alone using the brand new Apple iPhone, which won't be released for sale until June.
That hasn't stopped iPhone envy, impressing fans with the sleek design which promises to "reinvent the phone". Many are thrilled with this latest example showing the genius of Apple design.
Although Cisco apparently isn't too happy.
Jobs countered previous speculation suggesting iTunes sales were slowing down. In fact, he says, iTunes has now sold more than two billion songs, 50 million television episodes and over 1.3 million feature-length films have been purchased and downloaded from the iTunes Store, making it the world's most popular online digital media store.
And now, AppleTV (or iTV) will be coming to a living room near you, too.
Speaking of mobile phones, Yahoo! inked new Mobile 2.0 distribution deals with a variety of wireless providers for its newly enhanced mobile product Yahoo Go for Mobile 2.0, as well as a newly launched mobile search platform, dubbed oneSearch.
Lastly, fresh-back-in-session Congress led by the Democrats formerly introduced a new Net Neutrality bill, which is good news for all media trend watchers.
Lots of media news with potential long-term impact. Wonder what the new media landscape will look like one year from now?
posted by Unknown @ Tuesday, January 09, 2007,
,
